Brian Johnson, insolvency partner at the chartered accountants HW Fisher & Company, comments.
In terms of company insolvency, so far, so good. With the UK economy firmly back in gear – and set to overtake Germany in the global growth league – the number of business casualties is falling steadily. But a few warning lights remain stubbornly on. While company liquidations are thankfully back down to pre-crisis levels, seven years of pain mean some sectors remain very fragile. Many SMEs who supply large firms are being forced to accept ever longer payment terms for their work, especially in the construction and retail chain sectors. This is putting a severe strain on cash-flow for businesses that are already under pressure. Construction – which bore the brunt of the recession more than most – contracted by 1.8 percent in the last quarter of 2014. With many construction firms already barely surviving on very low margins, this is a real worry. And while shoppers may be benefitting from the supermarket price war, for suppliers and haulage companies the price cutting is already causing substantial pain.
Most companies are feeling the benefit of Britain's return to growth and strong demand, so while fewer firms are going to the wall, these encouraging numbers are far from an unalloyed triumph. With credit still cheap and banks still cutting some slack to those struggling to pay their debts, the number of full-blown bankruptcies is shrinking fast. But the fact that nearly a fifth fewer people went bankrupt in 2014 compared with the previous year does not automatically mean all is rosy. The number of IVAs is steadily increasing.
In part this is because IVAs are seen as an attractive alternative to full-blown bankruptcy – and they now account for more than half of all individual insolvencies. This trend will continue when the threshold for bankruptcy rises from £750 to £5000. Creditors prefer IVAs too, as they allow them to recover something on their outstanding debts. But the surging number of IVAs also hints at the lurking debt problems many people have. “The current consumer boom is being fuelled in part by cheap credit, and many people risk taking on debts they will struggle to pay when interest rates eventually rise.