“The thirand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hike interest rates for the first time in a decade next week. Jacod quarter GDP figure is nothing to write home about but it is better than expected and will add to the pressure on the Bank of Englb Deppe, head of trading at online trading platform, Infinox comments.
Jacob Deppe continues “Markets have all but priced in an interest rate hike in November after the hawkish tone struck by Bank Governor Mark Carney in recent weeks. “And if Bank of England economists are becoming concerned that inflation is no longer simply being imported from the continent but is becoming entrenched in the economy, the MPC will feel even more compelled to act. With retail sales in September falling, inflation rising to its highest level for five years and unemployment at a record low, if the MPC doesn’t raise interest rates now, many will begin to question if it will ever do so.
“And hiking interest rates will only take them back up to 0.5%. So, while symbolically important, it’s unlikely the first rate hike in ten years will be catastrophic for the economy. If the MPC doesn’t raise interest rates on 2 November following this preliminary GDP estimate, Mark Carney will be branded as the central banker who cried wolf once too often.”
Ross Andrews, director of fixed rate bond provider, Minerva Lending, said: “We’ve had slight upward revisions on this scale already this year so while it’s welcome that the numbers are running slightly ahead of expectations, it’s not going to set anyone’s newspaper on fire. Of most interest is the unexpected bounce back in manufacturing growth because manufacturing optimism slumped noticeably during this quarter.
“What will be playing on the minds of those in the corridors of power is the muted response in the figures given the good news we’ve had of late. Consumer confidence was running at a six-month high in September and a fallen pound has helped lighten the export mood recently alongside robust consumer spending.
“If all we can muster, in terms of a payoff, is an acceleration in economic growth that’s so small you could blink and miss it, the Bank of England could still think better of a rate rise next week. Nothing seems to have been able to counteract sluggishness in other sectors so we could be looking at a more structural slowdown which sees savers and spenders now hit simultaneously, with low rates on one side and tightening credit on the other”.