The Autumn Statement was considered by many to be a bit of a damp squib. While there were some measures to encourage growth (particularly the full expensing extension) and National Insurance contribution rate cuts for the self-employed and employees and some useful simplification measures, there was not much by way of pre-election giveaways.

That lack of action has increased expectations for the Spring Budget which is now the Government’s last chance to be generous to voters before they go to the polls. So what might we expect?

Paul Robbins, Associate Director of Tax at Croner-i, says “Clearly, tax cuts are likely. Some have suggested a 1p cut in income tax or an unfreezing of the income tax thresholds to reduce fiscal drag. Neither of these have been specifically trailed by government representatives but they could be being kept as rabbits to be produced out of the Chancellor’s hat.

“Another possibility is that the increased £250,000 nil-rate band for stamp duty land tax which is due to expire on 31 March 2025 will be extended or even made permanent.

“Many influential voices in the Conservative Party want at least a partial reversal of the corporation tax hike, which came into effect in April 2023, so that cannot be ruled out.

“There has been widespread speculation that something significant will happen with inheritance tax, potentially even its abolition. This would seem an odd tax to cancel for a government wanting to appeal beyond its core support of the elderly and the wealthy. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, only 4% of death estates actually pay inheritance tax. It would also not be straight forward to abolish inheritance tax, given how integrated it is with other areas of tax, especially capital gains tax.

“We can expect something on the high-income child benefit charge, which is currently a bit of a mess, is being considered and the extension of transferable personal allowances has also been mentioned by some commentators.

“It is hoped that with so many announcements on research and development relief having been made over recent years that this will be left alone, though there are rumours that the new merged regime may be delayed.

“One significant tax which is likely to escape relatively untouched is VAT.

“The fact that this is a pre-Election Budget also means that, whatever the result, some of the measures will have a limited lifespan. I’m sure that the new Government will promptly embark on a fiscal event followed by a further Finance Act post-election.”