Pay awards in the three months to the end of January 2013 are worth 2.5 percent at the median, according to the latest analysis from pay specialists XpertHR, confirming the preliminary findings that settlements have moved up on the level seen over the latter part of 2012. 

Half of awards are worth between two percent and three percent. This compares with a median of two percent over the final quarter of 2012, when half of deals were set at between one percent and 2.5 percent. However, pay settlements have only returned to the level seen over the first quarter of 2012, and the increase may not be a sign of a trend of higher awards over the rest of the year: in the past two years, the median has dropped back once pay awards in the key month of April are included in the headline figure. Although almost a quarter of settlements analysed each year by XpertHR have review dates in January, four in 10 deals are effective in April, including many in the public sector. The current sample of pay deals effective in the three months to the end of January 2013 are all from the private sector, as very few public sector groups settle their awards during this period. Among the 101 basic pay awards collected so far, the most common increase is three percent. But some bargaining groups continue to see much lower awards, and one award in eight of the total sample of 117 settlements is a pay freeze. XpertHR Pay and Benefits editor Sheila Attwood said: “Although pay settlements have moved higher than the level seen at the end of last year, this may be a repeat of the 'January bounce' we have seen in previous years. We expect private-sector awards to remain in the region of 2.5 percent over 2013, but much of the public sector will be restricted to an average one percent increase.”